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[Migalot]

Sorry, but that's simply wrong.

We have a large trade deficit with the EU – meaning that they export more to us than we export to them. Do you really think they would stop exporting to us? And, if they carry on exporting to us – which clearly they would, then we would carry on exporting to them. Trade is two-way!!! 

Even if pigs started to fly and governments decided not levy taxes (dream on), I can tell you from the mindess, pointless training I've had too endure, exporting to non EU markets is a huge overhead, and does push up costs. If your biggest market is no longer open, free trade...   ...well, anyone can see...

The EU is not our biggest market – it's roughly on a par with the rest of the world. Non-EU Exports for March 2016 were £12.9 billion, while EU Exports were £12.0 billion.

To get trade agreements in place, large payments (lets call them foreign aid payments) will be needed to bribe sweeten the deal...   ...I wonder where that will come from? The bottomless pit of money the government has?  Same dream

After 50 years, the EU still does not have a free trade deal in place with a single top 10 economy! And yet it still trades!

...it wouldn't be a single deal with EU countries, it would be 27 separate deals...

No it wouldn't!! If the EU remains in place, individual EU countries will be unable to conclude individual deals — only Brussels can do that. That's why we cannot conclude a deal with China, without the EU's say-so (yet Norway and Switzerland have signed such deals!). But, is a trade deal that necessary? Why, then, am I sitting on a chair made in China, staring into a screen made in Korea - countries with whom we have no trade deal? Simple. It's business.

Also, the EU's share of the world market is dwindling quite sharply. The emerging economies are more flexible and better at doing business. Why should we be shackled to a trade bloc whose importance is diminishing? We are the fifth largest economy in the world and it's "dangleberries" to think that any country in the world would shun us after Brexit. 

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

I completely agree with everything you say Migalot. Its good to see someone dealing in facts (Ive checked many of them), rather than urban myth, knee jerk reaction etc.
The Germans sell us lots of cars. Apparently we are their biggest market. They also sell us lots of other stuff too. The French sell us lots of cars, wine cheese etc. The Italians sell us lots of cars, wine, fashion etc......
European economies cannot function without channelling most of their trade through the city of London. Over 90% of financial trades in Europe, take place in the city of London.
Does anyone really think the Europeans are going to risk all that ? Particularily when they are in extremely perilous waters financially, with no clue how to get back to calmer waters.
A punitive trade war with the U.K. could very easily be the straw that breaks the camels back, and puts the whole EU economy over the edge of the cliff.
It just aint going to happen.Its scare mongering, and I'm bemused that apparently intelligent people believe it,
I honestly believe that everyone entitled to vote should do a lot of objective research, or simply abstain from voting altogether.

[Sir Tigger KC]

And it wouldn't be a single deal with EU countries, it would be 27 separate deals, each with their own restrictions, costs, procedures and rules. Each would have to be separately negotiated, and you think we'll come out the winner in most cases? We'll get bogged down in sub-deals, payments, disputes between other countries which will damage our ability to trade with those where we've sided with another country...   ...you get the picture.

Yes this is incorrect.  Any trade deal with EU countries will be negotiated with the EU Commission and it will be a single trade deal with the EU, not individual countries.  However, the Commission will have to take account of all 27 countries wants and needs from such a deal and countries will be able to exercise their veto. 

It's often said that we have a trade deficit with the EU so they will be eager to sign a free trade deal with us, but not all of the 27 countries have a deficit with us or indeed do significant trade with the UK.  So for example a country like Lithuania will have a very different axe to grind than Germany, and will probably demand the right of their people to live and work in the UK as part of the deal.  I'd expect all of the Eastern block to demand this to be honest. 

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

It doesn't really matter what the smaller countries want. Germany runs the EU, mostly for its own benefit. Only France has any really significant say in matters, and Merkel seems to be taking less notice of them than she used to.
German industry wont allow themselves to be put in a position where their exports to the UK are put at risk and Merkel knows it.
She is already under a lot of pressure at home on various fronts, and made herself very unpopular by inviting every waif & stray who wanted to come, to come to Germany / EU without bothering to consult anyone else.

[Sir Tigger KC]

The Eastern European countries have formed their own little block within the EU in the wake of the migrant crisis.  If 11 countries demand the same thing, ie the right of their peoples to live and work in the UK as part of a trade deal, the Commission will have to take note whatever Germany wants. 

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

But we wont have to take any notice whatsoever.  .......but in reality, I firmly believe the Germans would never allow that to seriously interfere with their trading.
Ig need be, VAG could buy the smaller eastern bloc countries and change all their rules. 

[TheBoy]

I honestly believe that everyone entitled to vote should do a lot of objective research, or simply abstain from voting altogether.

Absolutely

And proper research, not the meaningless, incorrect tripe being said by the politicians (of all sides).

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Agreed.  ........................off you go then. 

[TheBoy]

No it wouldn't!! If the EU remains in place, individual EU countries will be unable to conclude individual deals — only Brussels can do that.

Well that's bad news if we exit.

and it's "dangleberries" to think that any country in the world would shun us after Brexit.

Surely that's a contradiction of above?  As we have to appease 27 countries at a time.  And a very disparate 27 counties.

[Sir Tigger KC]

Well that's bad news if we exit.

and it's "dangleberries" to think that any country in the world would shun us after Brexit.

Surely that's a contradiction of above? As we have to appease 27 countries at a time.  And a very disparate 27 counties.

27 out of 195 other countries worldwide, or to put it another way the EU consists of 14% of the worlds countries. So maybe we'd be better off engaging with the other 86% of the world on our own terms. 

We should be a little a lot more ambitious!    Amended. 

[Varche]

I like that word, ambitious. I feel that we are just trundling along under the umbrella of the EU and at their collective pace. 

[Varche]

One point I have raised is what happens to foreign owned companies employing locals.

I have a school pal who has a very good farming business going in Romania. He saw ages ago that land prices are/were very low and yet the growing conditions were good. He employs a fair number of Romanians. Sadly each time I have dropped in to his UK base to ask him he has been there working. Similarly I believe there are 248,000 mostly Brits employed in the Uk by as an example German owned companies. Normalising those and many others won't be a quick job. Actually it could be and might be when the vested interests see how joint trade is just going down the pan threatening the world with recession. Fanciful? maybe but Frau Merkel fired her first warning shot today despite having said she wouldn't comment on the referendum.

[TheBoy]

Well that's bad news if we exit.

and it's "dangleberries" to think that any country in the world would shun us after Brexit.

Surely that's a contradiction of above? As we have to appease 27 countries at a time.  And a very disparate 27 counties.

27 out of 195 other countries worldwide, or to put it another way the EU consists of 14% of the worlds countries. So maybe we'd be better off engaging with the other 86% of the world on our own terms. 

We should be a little a lot more ambitious!    Amended. 

But the EU part is still important, as most estimates put it at approaching half of all our exports?


Just reading some stuff about being like Norway, as the Leave group frequently use as a utopia we should be aiming for, and it appears that their deal to access the EU market prohibits Norway from making separate trade deals with non EU countries where the EU has a trade agreement in place, or being negotiated. So we wouldn't get any additional freedom?

But the EU is probably not going to be an area of export growth, so do we need any trade agreement with EU states?


Obviously, that would completely bugger Sunderland's chances of getting any more models from Nissan

[Sir Tigger KC]

To be honest I think we should forget about being like Norway, Switzerland or Albania for that matter and just be ourselves.  I also think that the conditions demanded by the EU for a trade deal would be so onerous that we'd be better off without one in the long term.   

I mean how can the EU dictate to Norway who they can and can't do deals with FFS!    This sort of thing is exactly why we should head for the exit! 

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

I keep a close eye on the leave groups and they don't advocate a Norwegian style deal, or any other style deal. They advocate hammering out a deal from a position of strength.
The remain campaign though continually try to pigeonhole the leave argument into a Norwegian scenario, to advance their own arguments.
No idea what the latest figures are on exports to they EU are (and they have always been very suspect, even by EU standards), but I'm sure its nothing like half.
Nissan have already stated (as have many other large companies) that the result of the vote wont affect their UK operations.
Imo the financial institution on this country which is the best one to invest with these days for SIPPS, and various other products, is Hargreaves Lansdown, they are very dynamic, forward looking, and have gone from nothing to major players in a relatively short space of time.
They aren't members of the elite big boys club, such as Golden Sacks etc. They are ploughing their own furrow very successfully indeed.
Peter Hargreaves, founder of the company is convinced that Brexit would be a fantastic move for the UK economy. I would much rather go with his view on the subject, than the economic remedial we have in number 11 these days, or the global corporation which said we must join the Euro, and advised that the Greek economy was in good enough shape to join the Euro.
http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/peter-hargreaves-brexit-would-be-an-absolute-fillip-for-uk/a892351

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/615920/Peter-Hargreaves-why-he-backs-Brexit-why-Mark-Carney-should-keep-out